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January 11, 2010

Strong December Adds to India’s Record Year

Sales of new vehicles in India climbed 18.7% last year to 1.4 million units, Bloomberg News calculates based on data from the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers.

After growing 20% in 2006 and 15% in 2007, the increase of vehicle deliveries in India slowed to just 2% in 2008 to 1.2 million units, Bloomberg notes. SIAM expects sales to expand another 12%-13% in the fiscal year ending March 31, 2011.

Last year’s rally included a 40% year-over-year spike in December, with sales of passenger cars climbing to 115,300 units. Truck and bus volumes more than doubled to some 48,600 units for the period, while sales of two-wheelers surged 67% to nearly 767,800 units.

Year-end sales benefited from the start of an economic recovery, cheaper loan rates, government stimulus measures and a resurgence in India’s stock market. The economy may grow as much as 8% during the current fiscal year, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee previously projected.


No Surprise: China Tops U.S. in Auto Sales

China became the world’s largest auto market last year, easily surpassing the U.S. to achieve the honor for the first time.

Light-vehicle sales in China totaled about 12.85 million units last year, according to the China Passenger Car Assn. Including heavy trucks, total vehicle sales are estimated at more than 13.5 million units, up 45%, the trade group says.

By comparison, U.S. car and light truck sales last year plunged 21% to 10.4 million units—a 27-year low and well off 2005’s peak of 17 million units. The overall total in the U.S., including medium and heavy trucks, was about 10.7 million units last year.

Demand for cars and minivehicles in Japan fell more than 9% to 4.6 million units last year. It was the fifth consecutive year-over-year sales decline. Annual sales in the country stood at nearly 7.8 million units in 1990.

Full-year sales for western Europe’s 17-nation group totaled 13.6 million cars in 2009, up 0.5% from a year earlier, according to J.D. Power and Associates.

China’s growth rate is expected to slow to low double-digit levels this year. Last year’s breakneck pace was spurred by a variety of government incentives, including halving taxes levied on vehicles with engines that displace 1.6 liters or less. Such vehicles accounted for some 85% of the growth in the overall vehicle market last year.

Most automakers enjoyed healthy increases in China last year. General Motors Co. led with sales of 1.83 million passenger and commercial vehicles, up 68% from 2008. The company says its market share grew 1.3 points to 13.4%.

Volkswagen reports a record 1.4 million vehicle sales in China last year, up 37% from 2008. The company plans to launch seven new models this year and is confident it will achieve its goal of 2 million sales ahead of its 2018 target.

Toyota’s sales in China expanded by 21% to 710,000 vehicles. It expects to grow sales to 800,000 this year. Ford, a relative latecomer to the Chinese market, posted a 44% increase to 440,600 vehicles last year.

Sales of domestic-branded models accounted for 30% of total passenger vehicle sales in China last year.


China Expected to Be Tops in Exports Too

Fueled by a higher-than-expected performance in December, China is expected to surge past Germany for the full year as the world’s largest exporter, according to Chinese government reports.

Due to the global recession, China’s exports fell 16% last year to about $1.2 trillion, the country’s Customs department says. And its trade surplus with other countries plunged 34% to $196 billion.

China had about a $40 billion edge in exports over Germany through the first 10 months, Chinese trade officials say. And year-over-year shipments from China grew 17% to $130 billion in December, marking the first increase since October 2008. Last month’s increase included 23% gains in the province of Guangdong and the municipality of Shanghai as well as sizeable increases in other major export provinces of Jiangsu (17%) and Zhejiang (14%), China Daily notes.

Analysts forecast a 10% to 15% increase in exports through the first quarter. But they also point out that most of the exports tend to be low-margin items. Further increases also are expected to fuel more calls to let the yuan appreciate more vs. with foreign currencies.


SsangYong Gets a Reprieve

A Seoul court has approved SsangYong Motor Co.’s reorganization plan under which the small South Korean automaker will try to land a new owner in a debt-for-equity swap.

The ruling averts the immediate threat of liquidation. The South Korean company, which has been under bankruptcy protection since last February, vows to return to profitability within three years. Analysts are skeptical.

The restructuring was opposed by foreign creditors and China’s SAIC Motor Corp., whose stake would shrink to 11.3% from 51.3% under the plan. SAIC lost control of SsangYong after refusing to make further investments, forcing the South Korean SUV maker into receivership amid a severe cash crunch.

Demand for SsangYong’s vehicles plunged by two-thirds last year to 30,000 units, and the company endured a 77-day plant occupation by fired workers last summer. The company’s third-quarter loss tripled from a year earlier to $78 million.


Chinese Company Leading the Hunt for Former Delphi Unit

Confirming previous reports, General Motors Co. says it is shopping Nexteer Automotive Inc. and hopes to sell the Saginaw, Mich.-based steering business quickly.

GM bought the unit from Delphi Holdings LLP last October as part of an effort to help its former partsmaking unit emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

Shortly after Nexteer was acquired by GM, Automotive News reported that the automaker intended to sell it. The newspaper has identified China’s Yubei Power Steering System Co. as the leading candidate.

GM downplays the report, maintaining it has only responded to some informal inquiries at this point. But Nexteer CEO Robert Remenar points out that leaving GM would help it win business with other automakers, some of which have expressed concern about the current ownership relationship.

Nexteer makes electric and hydraulic power steering systems, driveline components and steer-by-wire systems. GM accounted for about half of the company’s $2.1 billion in sales in 2008. Citing internal documents, AN says Nexteer expects to report that sales slumped to $1.6 billion last year but will rebound to $1.8 billion in 2010 and $2.5 billion by 2013.

After being in the red for the first three quarters last year, Nexteer returned to profitability and positive cash flow in the fourth quarter, an unnamed company source tells AN. Delphi tried unsuccessfully to sell the unit during its bankruptcy.

Yubei, which supplies and buys parts from Nexteer, is part of China Aviation Industry Corp., a state-owned consortium with aviation and automotive interests. It posted sales of more than $125 million last year, AN says, primarily providing hydraulic steering modules for the Chinese market.


Nano May Add U.S. Stamp to Its Passport by 2013

Tata Motors Ltd. is working on a modified version of its Nano small car that its aims to begin selling in the U.S. by as early as 2013, according to Chairman Ratan Tata. He says the company will need at least three years to improve the vehicle’s crash performance and develop a larger engine for the American market. The Indian Nano is powered by a two-cylinder, 623-cc gasoline engine.

Tata began selling the Nano in India last year and reportedly will launch it in Europe in 2011. The company intends to maintain the original base price of one lakh (about $2,200 at current exchange rates) in India through the initial 100,000 production run. But rising commodity prices may push the sticker up in the future, the chairman concedes.

Prices in the U.S., Europe and elsewhere likely will be several thousand dollars higher to cover the cost of a larger engine, amenities such as air conditioning and a radio and meeting local safety standards.


Nissan to Source More Parts from India

Nissan Motor Co. says it plans to buy $40 million worth of auto components per year in India by 2012. This compares with an estimated $20 million this year and $30 million in 2011, Nissan Motor India Managing Director Kiminobu Tokuyama tells the Economic Times.

Part of the growth will come from exporting parts made at its Chennai plant to vehicle assembly facilities in China, Japan and Thailand.


Big Plans on Tap for Renault India

Renault SA is resuming investment in its operations in India, company officials said last week at the New Delhi Auto Expo. The company halted spending on a planned plant in Chennai in 2008 in the wake of the global economic downturn.

The French automaker plans to sell a full line of domestically produced vehicles in India within four years. The initiative will commence when Renault ramps up output of its Fluence luxury car and Koleos crossover vehicle in the second half of 2011. By 2013, Renault’s annual sales in India are expected to reach 50,000 to 60,000 units from virtually nothing today.


History Lesson: Developing Countries Recover Faster from Downturn

Developing countries will return to the growth rates they were experiencing before the recent global recession began in late 2008, trailed by recovery in the U.S. and other developed countries, according to a new study and forthcoming book authored by The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) senior partners David Rhodes and Daniel Stetler. The assessment is based on previous performances charted by the International Monetary Fund.

From 2010 to 2015, growth rates in China, India and Brazil are expected to be 8%-9%, 6%-7% and 3%-4%, respectively, according to the report. But it says the expansion in Russia, the remaining member of the so-called BRIC countries, is less certain and may be no more than 2%-3% in coming years. That would put the country’s expansion rate on par with forecasts for the U.S., Japan and Europe over the six-year period.

Companies need to prepare for such a dichotomy and proactively develop business models that enable them to make the most of growth where it exists, Stetler says.

There tends to be a significant output gap—the difference between actual output and previous growth rates—in the seven years after a banking crisis. On average, actual output is 10% below its pre-crisis trend. BCG says it has created a model to explore the effects of the recession on likely growth patterns.

In Russia, the BCG model projects an output gap in 2015 of –29.7%; in the United Kingdom –16.7%; in the U.S. –12.8% and in Germany –11.7%. By contrast, Brazil is projected to be ahead of its pre-crisis growth trend, with an output gap of 1.3%. For India, the output gap is expected to be –2.5%; and for China, – 4.3%.


Continental Aims to Double Sales Rate in India

Continental AG says India currently accounts for about $70 million, or 17%, of its business in Asia. The company tells AutoBeat Asia it aims to boost revenue in India to 30% of its regional sales by 2015.

Claude d’Gama Rose, the new managing director for Continental’s operation in India, notes the company has invested about $80 million in India over the last three years and plans to add about 80 engineers to the current 120-member staff at its technical center in Bangalore over the next few years.

d’Gama Rose, who took the helm of Conti operations in India last month, says the company’s goal is to eventually localize the entire value chain from R&D and engineering to purchasing and manufacturing. The supplier currently has three plants in India, located in Bangalore, Pune and Manesar.

Conti has scored several new business wins in India’s expanding small-car market, supplying the instrument cluster and body controller for the Volkswagen Polo and Ford Figo. The company also makes the fuel supply unit for Tata Motors Ltd.’s Nano city car. The module is produced in Pune and developed by the Continental engineering team at Bangalore center.

At last week’s New Delhi auto show, Conti showcased an array of technologies for chassis and safety, powertrain and interior systems. It also is taking the wraps off its new IDOL concept cars. The latter showcases a host of Conti technologies. For example, the project includes a new cost-efficient instrument cluster for an optimized human machine interface by touch screen and voice recognition.

Conti also has an integrated entertainment system with MP3, DVD video, integrated navigation and Bluetooth interface for mobile phones. Gamarose says Conti’s focus is on features suitable for trucks and B- and C-segment cars.